The 2020 election is shaping up to be the most dynamic election in United States history. Almost every state experienced record-breaking turnout for early voting. As of November 1, more than 90 million Americans have cast ballots. Many political scientists believe 150 million Americans in total will vote in the 2020 election. If this happens, it will be the highest voter turnout in US history. This article will go over what political scientists see in the data coming from early voting.
A Generational Shift
The most exciting information from early voting data is the rate at which young Americans are turning out to vote. According to TargetSmart, out of the 90 million votes cast, 6 million votes were cast by voters under the age of 30. This turnout shatters the previous record of 2 million set during the 2016 election over the same time frame.
In states like Texas, it is almost turning into a millennial revolution. Political scientists have had their eye on Texas since the massive growth of young registered voters in the 2018 election cycle. Now, the rate of millennials voting in the state of Texas has increased by over 400%. In total, 800,000 voters under the age of 30 have cast their votes in Texas. Out of the 800,000, 66% have never voted before. Texas has now exceeded the total number of votes it received in the 2016 election.
What does this data mean for Texas? Since 1980, Texas has remained a stronghold for the Republican party. However, over the past decade, a shift has occurred in Texas politics. Much of the millennial early vote has come from major city centers. Historically, city centers are home to a more liberal base than rural counties that usually remain in the conservative camp. If the Democrats can flip the state of Texas, it could give Joe Biden the delegates he needs to secure victory over Donald Trump. However, it is important to note that according to a poll conducted by The New York Times, conservative voters are more likely to vote on election day than participate in early voting. With this in mind, it is too early to know if the Democrats got enough people to vote to flip Texas. One thing is for sure it is going to be a close race in the lone star state.
American Voters are Growing Nervous About the Ballot Box
America is currently battling the biggest health pandemic in over 100 years. COVID-19 has made it difficult for many Americans to go out to their local ballot box and vote. In response, states have lifted many of the restrictions to qualify for a mail-in ballot. However, as the election draws closer, Americans are nervous that their mail-in ballots will not make it in time.
The New York Times spent the last week interviewing voters from every major battleground state. The news publication found that voters are opting to participate in early voting instead of using mail-in ballots. Marilyn Crowder is one such individual that believes the election is too important to trust mail-in ballots. Marilyn told The New York Times, “I’m going to vote like my life depends on it.” Marilyn is not alone; Americans from all over the country are choosing to wait in early voting lines for hours to ensure their vote is counted in time for the election.
Battleground States are Becoming More Contested
Texas is not the only state to experience record-breaking turnout. Key battleground states, including Iowa, Florida, and North Carolina, have experienced significant early voter turnout growth. A CNN conducted poll found in most key battleground states, the vote has already reached 80% or above the 2016 election turnout.
Florida is seeing the thinnest margins recorded since the 2000 election. Donald Trump won the state of Florida back in 2016 by a little over 1%. Now, the state seems too close to call with the number of younger voters participating in early voting increasing. In 2016 only 8% of Florida residents under the age of 30 participated in early voting. In 2020 the percentage has increased from 8% to 10%.
What to Expect on Election Night
The 2020 election is going to be a bumpy ride. America is experiencing the highest voter turnout in history. However, with such a high turnout, polling locations are reaching a breaking point. Poll workers are now working day and night to process ballots while also keeping their doors open to accommodate the long lines. In the last week of early voting, election officials had to recruit over ten thousand poll workers to keep up with the growing demand. With so much chaos and turmoil at polling stations, Election Day may turn into Election Week.
Bibliography
Corasaniti, Nick, and Stephanie Saul. “Americans Surge to Polls: 'I'm Going to Vote Like My Life Depends on It'.” The New York Times, The New York Times, 31 Oct. 2020, www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/us/politics/early-voting.html.
Edelman, Adam. “'It's Too Important Now': Record Turnout, Black Voters Fuel Democratic Hopes in Georgia.” NBCNews.com, NBCUniversal News Group, 1 Nov. 2020, www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/it-s-too-important-now-record-turnout-black-voters-fuel-n1245416.
“Harvard Youth Poll.” The Institute of Politics at Harvard University, iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/harvard-youth-poll.
Levy, Adam. “Republicans Are Narrowing the Early Voting Gap in These States.” CNN, Cable News Network, 30 Oct. 2020, www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/politics/republicans-democrats-early-voting/index.html.
Summers, Juana. “Within The Early Voting Boom, Youth Turnout Seems To Be Surging.” NPR, NPR, 29 Oct. 2020, www.npr.org/2020/10/29/928641949/within-the-early-voting-boom-evidence-of-youth-turnout-surging.
“Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections.” Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections | The American Presidency Project, www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/voter-turnout-in-presidential-elections.
